Global trade chains previously chased maximum efficiency, but the priority has shifted to ensuring continuity. Security of maritime routes is back in focus after tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks in the Red Sea, and disruptions at the Suez Canal. For Italy, a nation where about a quarter of its foreign trade by value moves by sea, this is less of a geopolitical issue and more of a matter of industrial competitiveness.
The Mediterranean is regaining a central role that will likely redraw global logistics. The 13th “Italian Maritime Economy” report from Srm, linked to the Intesa Sanpaolo group, titled “Straits and maritime routes in the new global scenario,” was presented in Naples on July 10. The report notes that world trade is not slowing but reorganizing around new regional lines where supply chain resilience and port infrastructure matter more.
The Hormuz crisis symbolizes this shift. Before tensions rose, the strait handled 37% of global crude oil, 28% of LPG, 19% of LNG, 19% of refined products, 13% of chemicals, and 9% of vehicles. The Persian Gulf is strategic for more than hydrocarbons; it provides about a third of global helium and nitrogen fertilizers like urea and ammonia, plus more than 50% of certain raw materials for manufacturing, chemicals, and the food industry.
A near-shutdown of the strait blocked volumes equivalent to roughly 10% of global oil production and 5% of natural gas, involving 1.4% of the global container fleet. The effect was immediate: rising energy prices, higher insurance premiums, and a surge in shipping rates.
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Shipping companies reacted quickly to avoid supply chain interruptions. Beyond route deviations and more reliance on transshipment, intermodal sea-land solutions like those introduced by MSC and CMA CGM have been developed. The first effects of the crisis were reflected in the logistics hubs of the United Arab Emirates.
According to Srm, as the emergency gradually passes, a significant portion of traffic will return to using the traditional route through Hormuz. However, the lesson is clear: supply chain resilience has become a structural factor of competitiveness.
The transformation affects more than just the Middle East. World trade continues to grow but changes geographically. The decoupling between the United States and China accelerates the regionalization of value chains.
Beijing simultaneously increased exports to Africa (+25.8%) and Southeast Asia (+13.4%), while the European Union focuses on commercial diversification through new agreements and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
In this new balance, the Mediterranean strengthens its centrality. Despite Suez difficulties, container traffic has grown, and forecasts indicate growth for the sector.
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This evolution represents an opportunity window for Italy. The country is among the world’s top exporters, and the Blue Economy generates added value.
However, dependence on maritime routes makes the Italian economy particularly sensitive to geopolitical crises. Sea trade with Gulf countries is worth about $21 billion.
“The closure of Hormuz confirms that the competitiveness of manufacturing countries increasingly plays out on the security and continuity of maritime routes. The first signals for 2026 show Italian sea-based import-export slowing to $73.1 billion, an 8% decline. It is not yet alarming but worth considering: energy, raw materials, and industrial goods immediately feel tensions on major chokepoints,” Massimo Deandreis, general director of Srm, told MF-Milano Finanza.
Italian ports enter this new phase with solid foundations. In 2025, Port Authorities moved 511 million tons of cargo (+3.5%), while container traffic rose to 12.8 million TEU (+7.1%), supported mainly by transshipment. Italy remains a European leader in Short Sea Shipping with 304 million tons moved and a 15.6% share of the European market.
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Competition will no longer depend solely on the ability to move goods. The real competitive advantage will depend on integration between ports, railways, industrial areas, and destination markets. This is where over $13 billion of planned investments in the Italian port system are concentrated, aimed at improving maritime accessibility, last-mile rail connections, digitalization, and infrastructure resilience.
The Mediterranean sits at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, making it the natural hub for this reshuffling. For Italy, the challenge is to prevent its geographic position from becoming a liability and instead turn it into a logistical advantage. The country needs to upgrade its connections to handle the expected surge in regional trade, particularly with North Africa and the Middle East, to ensure its manufacturers can rely on stable supply chains in an increasingly fragmented global market.
This vision is shared by Gian Maria Gros-Pietro, president of Intesa Sanpaolo. “The sea is a privileged key to understanding the evolution of the world economy. Maritime routes, ports, strategic straits, and logistic infrastructure are not just elements of the transport system: they are the places where international trade, energy security, industrial policy, and new geopolitical balances intersect.” He added: “A significant part of Italy’s competitiveness is played precisely on the efficiency and capacity of its port-logistic system, an essential infrastructure to support growth, international openness, and economic resilience.”
In this scenario, continued Deandreis, Italian ports “are not just logistic infrastructures, but strategic presences of the national economy. Their ability to adapt, diversify flows, and strengthen connections with markets becomes decisive. It is necessary to accelerate on port investments, intermodalization, digitalization, and the last mile. Italy can strengthen its role in the new geographies of global trade. The response to the crisis cannot be defensive: it must become a long-term industrial and maritime strategy.”
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